[author] [author_image timthumb=’on’]http://conjsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Keith-Glock-Headshot.jpg[/author_image] [author_info]Keith Glock
CONJSports Founder
@conjsports[/author_info] [/author]
The Cleveland Browns are the embodiment of why football is a different sport than any of the other “Big-Four” professional sports in America – that is to say football, basketball, baseball and hockey.
When the Browns hired Paul DePodesta to assist general manager Sashi Brown, Cleveland was not bashful about saying that it was, organizationally, making a decision to value analytics above other metrics when evaluating players.
Common sense says that the way analytics are used in baseball cannot be directly applied to football given the variables on any given play, how those variables are affected by score of the game, time left in the game, down-and-distance etc.
For example, a quarterback’s statistics alone may not tell the story of a game. A team down by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a game may be forced to throw the ball in a disproportional way, while facing a “prevent” defense, all which could lead to an inflation of the losing quarterback’s statistics and a closer final score than what the actual play of the game may have dictated.
In 2011, ESPN created a metric – Total QBR (Total Quarterback Rating) which differs from the traditional metric of NFL Passer Rating in that it incorporates many more things involved in a game than just what the quarterback did when he threw the ball.
Sharon Katz and Brian Burke of ESPN Stats and Information explain in a July 2017 post:
All teams in the NFL have played at least eight games at this point, which makes using Total QBR as a metric to evaluate remaining teams’ schedules and how things might shake out, fairly statistically valid (save for new QBs who are recently starting because of injury.)
Why use Total QBR to project teams’ futures? Quarterback is simply the most valuable position in the game. The losses of Aaron Rodgers and DeShaun Watson for the Packers and Texans respectively caused the Vegas point spreads to move as much as 10 points. Losing a player at any other position in the league is barely even worth one point in the book-makers’ eyes, let alone 10 points.
That said, here’s a breakdown of some NFL contenders, their remaining opponents and opposing quarterbacks and their Total QBR:
What does all this mean?
✚ If the Lions manage to miss out on the playoffs, there should be significant criticism heaped on the league’s highest paid player, Matthew Stafford. His division is now without a quarterback that scares anyone – de facto rookie Brett Hundley, Case Keenum and rookie Mitchell Trubiski. To be the league’s highest paid player means you win when you’re supposed to. An opposing average QBR of 36.9 over the final eight games means you should win – a lot.
✚ The Patriots and Steelers, the AFC’s top two seeds through the first half of the season, shouldn’t fall off much, if at all, barring injury. Both teams’ remaining schedules sport average QBR’s of under 46. The AFC is already wrapped up, folks.
✚ The Saints have played exactly two competent teams so far: the Patriots and the Vikings. What happened in each? Pats dominated as the Pats do and the Vikings went up and down the field screaming ‘Who Dat?’ Did those things happen because they were Weeks 1 & 2? Maybe. The only gimmie left on their schedule is Week 17. We will know by then. For now, slow your role at least a little on crowning the Saints in the NFC South.
✚ The Redskins are going to win five of their final six games, and maybe their last six if Zeke Elliot doesn’t play. If Washington can win one of its next two games against the Vikings and Saints, it’s the Skins who could be that sneaky-good No. 5 seed in the NFC, knock off Detroit in the Wild-Card Round then head to Philly for a Divisional Matchup that will thrust Kirk Cousins – and his impending huge contract – very much into the primetime spotlight.
✚ The Cowboys are really good. Just how good if they have to play without Elliott? Not sure. This is the team with the biggest ‘?’ on its jersey if the courts uphold Elliot’s suspension. Dak Prescott hasn’t had to play without his draft-mate for any extended period of time. AKA, he’s never had to be ‘The Man.’ Chances are he will be down the stretch. Does he step up? The bet here is yes. He just looks so much like that other guy who everyone overlooked in the draft who by the way is pretty good. See: Wilson, Russell. Except Dak has two powerhouse lines – both offensive and defensive – in the trenches.
✚ We will find out what the Bills are made of. If Buffalo makes the playoffs, watch out. That will mean that a run-heavy offense will have survived a second half QBR-against of 56.2 and can go into a cold-weather venue and run the ball and potentially control the clock. This is something to watch.
✚ The Falcons are in big trouble. Their remaining QBR-against is 57.1 with trips to Seattle and New Orleans still left on the schedule. The only saving grace may be that five of the team’s final eight games are at home. If Atlanta takes care of business in its own house (no easy task given the competition), and manages to sneak in one win on the road, who knows. But, not likely.
✚ Seattle’s biggest limitation – its offensive line – and by proxy, that team’s ability to score points, could prove to be the Seahawks’ achilles’ heel. No matter how good the ‘Legion of Boom’ plays, opposing QBs with an average Total QBR near 57 so far this season should put up some points. Can Seattle match? Here’s a thing DePodesta and his stats can’t measure – and at times I feel like the only guy in the country beating this drum – but you have to watch the games. Week after week, I continue to watch and find myself asking: is Seattle actually any good? I really don’t think so.