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By Jesse Stiller
conjsports.com contributor
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The world of baseball never stops turning, especially for fans and pundits alike. Even though we are only two weeks past the 2017 MLB season, there have already been major moves in the MLB world, especially the player market.
The free agent and trade market is filled with quality-tier players such as Eric Hosmer, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and many more, and trade talks are already starting to heat up. In the mix, fans and pundits are already beginning to place their bets on who will win the World Series next year.
Of course, this all depends on which teams take advantage of both markets. Even though it is way too early to say which teams are playoff contenders, let alone World Series contenders, it is possible to make some projections on where the hottest players will end up next season.
The offseason looks to be busy this year, as front offices around the league begin to make the hard decisions of cutting and adding players. Not only this, but there are several sweepstakes taking place in the trading field, Such as the Giancarlo Stanton sweepstakes, and the Shohei Otani competition.
In addition, many teams are currently going though a hard rebuilding phase, like the Reds, Phillies, Tigers and White Sox. There’s no doubt that some of these teams will take advantage of the bustling free agency and trade markets this year – but there will be stiff competition
So as the deals begin to kick off, the question that is on almost every fan’s mind is the same: “Will my team get this player? Will my team cut these players?”
Signing a free agent or executing a trade is not easy, as a lot of resources go into getting a player. Does he want to play for you? Do you have the capital to make it happen?
That said, let’s start placing bets on what player goes where, and what teams will make the biggest splashes in the offseason.
Giancarlo Stanton: Brewers? Giants? Anyone?
Starting with the biggest fish in the trading pool this year, Stanton had an unbelievable season with the Marlins, slugging 59 home runs, 132 runs batted in, and a slash line of .281 batting average / .376 on-base-percentage/ and a .631 slugging average. The favorite to win the NL MVP this year, this was Stanton’s best season in terms of on-base plus slugging, slugging alone, doubles, home runs, and runs batted in.
However, rumors are circulating that Stanton may be traded away to another team, thanks to new ownership under Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman. He also expressed discontent in an interview in July, criticizing the prior ownership of Jeffery Loria for his trading deals, and does not want to be part of another big rebuild.
So, if he does up and leave, where will he be heading?
Matt L. Barron, and independent pundit and researcher for both politics and sports, as well as the owner of MLBAnalytics.com and a part-time sports commentator, chimed in on this potential movement.
“The Red Sox need a power bat at DH. Giancarlo Stanton would likely fit that bill to replace the slumping Hanley Ramirez,” Barron said.
With the departure of David Ortiz in 2016, and a slumping designated hitter Hanley Ramirez with a dismal slash line of .242/.320/.429, and only 23 home runs and 62 runs batted in, putting in Stanton to replace Ramirez would be the ideal goal for the Red Sox to achieve.
However, it’s recently been reported that Stanton may not accept any Red Sox deal, due to the massive $295 million he is owed over the next 10 years, according to Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald.
Despite this, the only two teams Stanton has not ruled out are the Giants and Phillies, who are currently in talks with the Marlins. The Giants went 64-98 last season, shortly after being crowned World Series campions in 2014. No starting player on the Giants hit over 20 home runs, or drove in more than 80 runs. If the talks succeed, Stanton would be replacing the aging and relatively light-hitting Hunter Pence in right field, giving an instant boost to their mediocre and depleted outfield corps.
The Phillies, however, recorded their third worst season of the millennium so far, going 66-96, marking their sixth-straight losing season. In fact, no starting Phillies player hit over 25 home runs, scored over 80 RBIs, or posted a .600 slugging average, or .300 batting average this year. If these talks succeed, Stanton would be replacing second-year right fielder Nick Williams.
While the Giants have experience on their team with players who have been in the league for several years, they have very little impact players that build momentum for the team. While the Phillies suffer the same issues on batting, that team is young and inexperienced, and has some decent rookies on the team that could grow up to become everyday starters and impact players, as well as a mid-tier farm system.
Prediction: Look for the Giants to go all out on Stanton and succeed. Their lack of power on the team is very concerning and not locking Stanton is a major opportunity missed. If this fails, his second option is Philadelphia.
Shohei Otani: The Japanese Sensation Sweepstakes
“Giants need a top of the rotation starter with Matt Cain’s retirement as well as a power bat to keep pace with Dodgers and D-Backs,” Barron said.
Shohei Otani, has a career record of 42-15 over 82 starts, a career ERA of 2.52, a 1.076 WHIP, and a Strikeout to Walk ratio of 3.12 to 1, compared to Minnesota’s 2.41 to 1, over five years of play in the Nippon League. Now that he can scour the MLB market, almost any team that is concerned with their starting rotation is looking to strike a deal. The two major contenders at this moment would be the Giants and the Twins.
The Giants bullpen was one of the most disastrous in the league, if not one of the worst of 2017. Out of the six-man starting rotation, not one starter recorded over 10 wins, and only one player had an ERA below 4.00 and a WHIP under 1.10, which would be strongman Madison Bumgarner. With Cain retiring, the starting rotation would leave Jeff Samardzija, Matt Moore, Ty Blach and Johnny Cueto, as well as Bumgarner, who all combined for a record of 35-59.
Relievers Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland, and George Kontos had ERAs under 4.00 and proved to be the most reliable relievers in the bullpen, in a positive aspect.
Overall, the Giants bullpen posted a 4.50 ERA with a 1.385 WHIP and a 2.49 Strikeout to Walk ratio in 2017.
The Twins, on the other hand, also had a bad bullpen and starting rotation, but nowhere near as bad on paper as the Giants. The six-man rotation had three of its starters, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, and Kyle Gibson, had an Earned Run Average of over 5.00, and four starts had a Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched number (WHIP) of over 1.5.
With an aging rotation, the weak reliever bullpen is also an issue. For example, Tyler Duffey had a 4.94 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.366, while fellow reliever Ryan Pressly had a 4.70 ERA, and a 1.15 WHIP. Other players like Phil Hughes, Buddy Boshers, and Trevor Hildenberger share the same issues as the rest of the bullpen.
The Twins bullpen posted a 4.59 ERA, with a 1.372 ERA and a 2.41 Strikeout to Walk ratio for 2017.
Between the two bullpens, The Twins have some starters that have proven themselves, such as Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios, who combined for a record of 30-16 and a ERA around 3.50. The Giants have glaring problems in the starting lineup should their current trend continue, their relievers can carry the team, but only for so long. While Minnesota’s aging bullpen is an issue, seeing that Santana will be 35 next year and Bartolo Colon will be 45, the Giants will not pass this up.
Prediction: Otani will head to San Francisco, despite efforts from the Twins, as the Giants are sure to not pass this up. If they get Stanton as well, they are the big winners.
J.D. Martinez: To the Red Sox?
“If the Red Sox fail to get Stanton, J.D. Martinez can also fit the bill,” Barron said.
Martinez is coming off his best season as an MLB player, slugging 45 home runs and driving in 104 RBIs, as well as posting a slash line of .303/.376/.690. The 2015 All-Star was traded to Arizona from Detroit and has blossomed into a caliber player at age 29. Now that he is a free agent, the Red Sox may be looking at him closely.
As stated before, Ramirez is not playing up to expectations, and he may be cut from the team, or traded away during this season, or next season. Although an outfielder, Martinez will not see the playing field in the outfield dominated by Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley. His most likely bet for this team is a DH role, and when compared to Ramirez, his slash line, compared to Ramirez’s .242/.320/.429, as well as his 23 home runs and 62 RBIs, will easily beat him out of the job.
Prediction: Boston must stash its lineup to remain atop of the AL East against the Yankees. Getting Martinez is a great plus, and he would be happy to play for such a team.