Colin Cowherd Doesn’t Hate Matt Ryan – But That Doesn’t Mean He’s Right

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“Matt Ryan is better than Andy Dalton. But he’s closer to Andy Dalton than he is to Aaron Rodgers.” – Colin Cowherd

 

 Missouri Guy:

There is a story that Fox Sports personality Colin Cowherd has told often in his radio career about once receiving a scouting report from a Missouri fan about Blaine Gabbert, where it was much less cheerleader than the average Missouri fan might provide. Instead, ‘Missouri Guy’  approached his analysis of Gabbert’s strengths and weaknesses with a bit more of a critical eye – and Cowherd loved it.

Cowherd also, rightly, puts a lot of stock into what he sees with his own eyes. He knew that ‘Missouri Guy’ (who he’s never been able to track down) saw way more of Gabbert, and because he threw the pom-poms away was able to provide a better critical analysis than most people could have of the overhyped signal caller.

That said, and for example, it was clear after listening to Coherd’s radio show after Week 5 in 2017, that he watched the entirety of the Carolina Panthers game in Detroit. The Herd was all-in on Carolina, calling them a real football team that just looked bigger and stronger.

Carolina pushed the Lions around for nearly the entire game, and Matt Stafford (er, Pad-Statford?) brought Detroit back against a prevent defense. But, because Cowherd actually watched the game, he did not allow the final score (which was much closer than the game actually was) to dictate his opinion on the Panthers.

What’s At Issue:

His comparisons of Ryan being much closer to Andy Dalton than to Aaron Rodgers have the Atlanta pom-pom waivers sending hate mail as fast as their southern fingers can type.

But his point isn’t far from the truth, but not because Ryan is anywhere near Andy Dalton’s level (he’s not), but because Cowherd himself has called Rodgers potentially the most talented player to ever play the position.

Here’s a decent analogy: Carl Lewis, there is no doubt, was an incredible Olympian. He is the second-most decorated track and field Olympian of all time, in fact (10 medals in all).

Lewis was also considered one of the fastest men on the planet for over a decade. He won the gold medal in the100-meter dash twice, took the gold in the 200-meter dash twice and locked up another two golds on the 100-meter relay team.

Thing is, compared to Usain Bolt, Lewis is slllllooooowwwwwwwww. Lewis’ fastest 100-meter time was 9.86 seconds. Bolt’s done it in 9.58 seconds. That’s a Grand Canyon-esque divide.

Does that make Lewis closer to an average sprinter than to Bolt? Sure does.

Does that mean Lewis is somehow inferior and middle of the road just because Bolt is SO good? No way.

Why’s Cowherd Wrong?

The suspicion is that Cowherd, prior to the 2016 season, and certainly in 2017, hasn’t watch a whole lot of Matt Ryan’s games in their entirety. He probably tuned in to watch Ryan and Atlanta dismantle Green Bay in Week 2 (Sunday Night Football), and then roll out a middling performance in New England on Sunday night a few weeks later.

The reason for that suspicion is that Cowherd keeps quoting stats about “a nearly even touchdown to interception ratio in 2017,” and “a career passer rating near 90 if you exclude his 2016 MVP season.” You can’t quote those stats in a vacuum, though. Saying Ryan’s stats make him mediocre without watching the games is just as valuable as saying that Stafford must be great because he threw for 400+ yards in Week 8.

But if he watched the games with his own eyes he would have seen (and you can see some of the video evidence yourself below in the ‘Evidence’ section):

• Atlanta beat “the best bad team in the NFL” by his estimation (the Bears) in Chicago
• Atlanta absolutely dominated Detroit just as Carolina did (two of Ryan’s three interceptions were the result of passes that should have been caught, but were tipped into the air)
• Only two of Ryan’s six total interceptions were the result of negligent QB play
• Officials upheld a fumble return touchdown and a later interception against Buffalo despite strong evidence both should have been overturned

The Evidence:

Here’s a few premises that Cowherd operates on, many of them coming in conjunction with his keen fascination with Las Vegas and gambling, and with the endorsement of the smart and on-the-rise R.J. Bell of www.pregame.com:

• The mathematical theory of regression back to the mean – essentially that all outliers in terms of accomplishments, both positive and negative, will move back to the middle eventually
• Turnovers are largely a function of luck (Bell and just-as-smart and saavy cronies Steve Fezzik and Matty Holt recently attributed a full 25% of turnovers to luck)

Here’s a look at, (as mentioned above) through his team’s first seven games of 2017, Ryan’s six interceptions:

This play was ruled a fumble, which was returned for a touchdown, in a game that Buffalo won by six. On R.J. Bell’s Wednesday NFL Dream Preview Podcast, Fezzik called this the best incompletion ever returned for a touchdown:

 

Some More Numbers:

Removing Ryan’s MVP season, as Cowherd is apt to do, let’s look at Ryan’s first eight seasons in the NFL (2008-2015) compared to other quarterbacks’ first eight seasons:

Most Games Completing 62% of Passes or More:

 

Most Games With a 100+ Passer Rating:
It should be noted that here is where Rodgers and Brady are freaks, and Rodgers is a freak even when compared to ONLY Brady

Rodgers’ had more games with a 100+ passer rating than any of the others despite playing one more full season than Brady and two more full seasons than Ryan or Roethlisburger

Come Back To The Middle

Just as the theory of regression to the mean tells us, the Falcons’ offense will rebound from some of the statistics which make it appear that Ryan is struggling.

There is no denying this fact: Falcons’ ‘Red Zone’ performance – that is to say when the offense has the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line – has been brutal to this point: 21st in the NFL in scoring touchdowns in that area (48% of opportunities as of 11/1/17)

But WHY, will those numbers improve?

• Atlanta, as of 11/1/17, is fifth in the NFL in opportunities in the red zone per game (3.6 trips per game)
• Atlanta, as of 11/1/17, is second in the league in the all-powerful statistic (according to Bell, Fezzik and Holt) of yards per play (6.2)

What Do We Make of All This?

Cowherd is one of the most savvy sports hosts on radio or television on any network. His eyeball test is solid, and he backs it up with stats. On this one, we need more eyeball test, Colin.

He is right. Matt Ryan is not Aaron Rodgers. No one except maybe some guy named Brady is. But Ryan is elite. Put Atlanta on your middle TV, Herd. Your eyes will show you.